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发表于 2008-8-10 11:50
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第二部分 犯罪对RCI Desirability的影响
犯罪作为城市的一项环境指标直接影响着地价、RCI Desirability和安全度民调的水平,而这三个项目又影响着RCI入驻率&需求刺激与市长支持度。因此某种程度上犯罪数就成了城市提升档次的一个瓶颈,甚至比需求瓶颈还要棘手。
1. 犯罪抑制了RCI Desirability的提升
原帖由 rszxh 于 2006-10-24 19:32 发表
這樣吧,偶貼一段數據,這樣有個量化的概念
(Develop)Exemplar File
Desirability Threshold Decline和Desirability Threshold Growth都是0x00000032
CO$$
Crime Effect 0.000000,50.000000,255.000000,-50.000000
Baseline Desirability 0xFFFFFFE5
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000001D
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000029
CO$$$
Crime Effect 0.000000,50.000000,15.000000,39.000000,30.000000,28.000000,45.000000,18.000000,60.000000,8.000000,75.000000,0.000000,90.000000,-8.000000,105.000000,-15.000000,120.000000,-22.000000,135.000000,-28.000000,150.000000,-33.000000,165.000000,-38.000000,180.000000,-41.000000,195.000000,-44.000000,210.000000,-47.000000,225.000000,-49.000000,240.000000,-50.000000,255.000000,-50.000000
Baseline Desirability 0xFFFFFFBF
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000001D
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000029
CS$
Crime Effect 0.000000,25.000000,15.000000,24.000000,30.000000,22.000000,45.000000,20.000000,60.000000,19.000000,75.000000,17.000000,90.000000,15.000000,105.000000,13.000000,120.000000,11.000000,135.000000,9.000000,150.000000,7.000000,165.000000,5.000000,180.000000,2.000000,195.000000,-1.000000,210.000000,-4.000000,225.000000,-8.000000,240.000000,-13.000000,255.000000,-25.000000
Baseline Desirability 0x00000044
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000000E
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000015
CS$$
Crime Effect 0.000000,50.000000,255.000000,-50.000000
Baseline Desirability 0xFFFFFFFD
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000001D
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000029
CS$$$
Crime Effect 0.000000,50.000000,15.000000,39.000000,30.000000,28.000000,45.000000,18.000000,60.000000,8.000000,75.000000,0.000000,90.000000,-8.000000,105.000000,-15.000000,120.000000,-22.000000,135.000000,-28.000000,150.000000,-33.000000,165.000000,-38.000000,180.000000,-41.000000,195.000000,-44.000000,210.000000,-47.000000,225.000000,-49.000000,240.000000,-50.000000,255.000000,-50.000000
Baseline Desirability 0x00000001
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000001D
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000029
R$
Crime Effect 0.000000,25.000000,15.000000,24.000000,30.000000,22.000000,45.000000,20.000000,60.000000,19.000000,75.000000,17.000000,90.000000,15.000000,105.000000,13.000000,120.000000,11.000000,135.000000,9.000000,150.000000,7.000000,165.000000,5.000000,180.000000,2.000000,195.000000,-1.000000,210.000000,-4.000000,225.000000,-8.000000,240.000000,-13.000000,255.000000,-25.000000
Baseline Desirability 0x00000019
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000000E
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000015
R$$
Crime Effect 0.000000,50.000000,255.000000,-50.000000
Baseline Desirability 0xFFFFFFA7
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000001D
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000029
R$$$
Crime Effect 0.000000,50.000000,15.000000,39.000000,30.000000,28.000000,45.000000,18.000000,60.000000,8.000000,75.000000,0.000000,90.000000,-8.000000,105.000000,-15.000000,120.000000,-22.000000,135.000000,-28.000000,150.000000,-33.000000,165.000000,-38.000000,180.000000,-41.000000,195.000000,-44.000000,210.000000,-47.000000,225.000000,-49.000000,240.000000,-50.000000,255.000000,-50.000000
Baseline Desirability 0xFFFFFF98
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000001D
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000029
IR
Crime Effect 0.000000,10.000000,15.000000,9.000000,30.000000,9.000000,45.000000,8.000000,60.000000,7.000000,75.000000,7.000000,90.000000,6.000000,105.000000,5.000000,120.000000,5.000000,135.000000,4.000000,150.000000,3.000000,165.000000,2.000000,180.000000,1.000000,195.000000,0.000000,210.000000,-2.000000,225.000000,-3.000000,240.000000,-5.000000,255.000000,-10.000000
Baseline Desirability 0xFFFFFFAF
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x00000005
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000009
ID
Crime Effect 0.000000,10.000000,15.000000,9.000000,30.000000,9.000000,45.000000,8.000000,60.000000,7.000000,75.000000,7.000000,90.000000,6.000000,105.000000,5.000000,120.000000,5.000000,135.000000,4.000000,150.000000,3.000000,165.000000,2.000000,180.000000,1.000000,195.000000,0.000000,210.000000,-2.000000,225.000000,-3.000000,240.000000,-5.000000,255.000000,-10.000000
Baseline Desirability 0x00000045
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x00000005
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000009
IM
Crime Effect 0.000000,25.000000,255.000000,-25.000000
Baseline Desirability 0x0000002F
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000000E
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000015
IH
Crime Effect 0.000000,50.000000,15.000000,39.000000,30.000000,28.000000,45.000000,18.000000,60.000000,8.000000,75.000000,0.000000,90.000000,-8.000000,105.000000,-15.000000,120.000000,-22.000000,135.000000,-28.000000,150.000000,-33.000000,165.000000,-38.000000,180.000000,-41.000000,195.000000,-44.000000,210.000000,-47.000000,225.000000,-49.000000,240.000000,-50.000000,255.000000,-50.000000
Baseline Desirability 0xFFFFFFA2
Subjective Factor Threshold (Min value) 0x0000001D
Subjective Factor Threshold (Max value) 0x00000029
以上是rszxh贴的数据,和藏经阁《环境因素对RCI各建筑物的Desirability的影响》一文的关于犯罪的图表数据来源相同,图表大家可以去那一帖看我就不贴了。我想Desirability的重要性毋庸置疑,对其不熟悉的朋友仍可参考藏经阁那帖。Desirability降低将直接影响楼房入住率,低Desirability也是引发黑/灰楼的重要诱因。数据显示最严重的犯罪程度会导致某些种类的RCI Desirability下降50,这样就很可能引发弃楼或者入驻率严重下降。
2. 犯罪会降低地价
地价是和犯罪平行的RCI Desirability影响因素之一,它会因高犯罪率而降低。地价水平虽然没有对应的数据曲线图体现,但在资料总览地图上犯罪高发的地块一定和地价低的地块重合,这种现象直接说明了犯罪会降低地价。因犯罪造成的地价降低同样会造成各种RCI分区的Desirability下降,这意味着犯罪的危害加倍了。关于地价影响RCI Desirability的具体数据参见《环境因素对RCI各建筑物的Desirability的影响》。本人文章均为原创,若转载请注明作者为弗洛伊德(弗老大)。对地价控制还不太熟悉的朋友可以参阅拙作《揭开地价的秘密》,该篇#22亦涉及了犯罪对地价的负面影响及简单处置方案。
3. 犯罪可间接抑制需求积累、阻碍城市成长
犯罪与看似不相关的需求通过一个反应链条关联起来:犯罪一旦产生就会给当格地块的RCI Desirability做减法进而降低楼房的入住率,入驻率的降低又会带来相应的需求损失。如标题所说,犯罪不但会抑制需求积累,还会阻碍城市成长,它们成因相同但表现不同。下面我就举个例子来算算这笔账。
假设2人口可刺激出1工作需求,那么一栋8000人R$住满后可以刺激4000个ID需求。如果这栋楼遇到高犯罪困扰Desirability降低造成入住率下降,实际居民人数为6000R$,那么就只能刺激出3000个ID需求、损失掉1000ID需求。如果一座城有同样的楼20座,那么损失的ID需求将高达2w。这是需求损失的一方面。
另一方面,8000人的楼实际入住6000人,意味着该楼2000人的住房空间无形中被浪费掉了。但这2000人的住房需求并没有消失,你仍然必须为这2000R$规划新的宅基地来安置,这么一来就增加了土地资源的消耗。假设你需要满足24wR$的住宅需求,那么只需满员的8000R$大楼30座,若因高犯罪导致实际入住人口降为6000,那么就需要40座8000R$大楼来满足(若出8000人以下的大楼就会消耗更多土地资源),这全是因为犯罪使大楼无法达到实际容量的结果。8000R$大楼占地4×4格,那么多出来的10座大楼将白白占去你160格土地,不过这还不是最可怕的。大家都知道住宅区需要各种配套的交通、医疗、安全、教育、休闲和奖励建筑来维持运转,由于大部分必要配套设施覆盖范围是有限的,因此住宅区往往必须和这类设施捆绑组合而成为一个占地较大的生活区。受到配套建筑覆盖范围的限制,面积上铺得越开的住宅区将会消耗掉更多土地建设配套建筑,占用更多土地。这么一算,多出来的10座大楼就不仅仅占用160格土地了,还要算上覆盖住宅所需的配套设施的建筑用地,而这部分土地因为40座楼占地更广而比维持30座大楼时用得更多。所以不论是从哪个方面来讲,因犯罪造成的大楼入住率降低一定会消耗更多的土地资源,从而加剧人口增长需要与用地供给不足之间的矛盾。这种土地与人口间的矛盾在小城市会体现得非常突出,即便是在大中城市出现这样的土地浪费也是十分可惜的。
以上只是举一个简单的例子,数字计算都只在理论层面进行,实际情况可能要复杂得多。但犯罪肯定是会间接的抑制RCI需求提升、阻碍城市成长的。
以上的结论估计多数老玩家都已烂熟于胸,真正棘手的情况是提升教育、就业率的情况下仍然有严重治安问题,下面就研究安全部门对降低犯罪的作用。 |
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